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Sugar's Decline Is Right On Elliott Wave Schedule

Wed, 09 May 2012 16:45:00
by Nico Isaac

Here is a chart without Elliott wave labels showing you the sweet-to-sour turnaround in sugar prices over the last two months.

Here is another chart: It comes from the March 19 Daily Futures Junctures "Weekly Wrap-up," where EWI's senior analyst and Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy drew a bold arrow pointing DOWN in sugar's future. A third wave down was about to start:

The source of Jeffrey's bearish sugar outlook was the "one-two, one-two" Elliott wave sequence underway since October. For newbies, the "1-2, 1-2" set-up is to price action what the first two swings on a chain are to the hammer throw Olympic sport: Round and round and release as the ball goes soaring in one direction.

In the Elliott wave case, the "1-2, 1-2" leads to third-of-a-third wave move, the most volatile point of strength in any wave sequence. Its real-world fingerprint is sugar's dramatic sell-off to the 20-month low we see today.

The question is, is that third-of-a-third over?

Well, in the May 7 Daily Futures Junctures (online now), Jeffrey re-examines sugar's price chart and shows you his outlook for sugar futures via a video analysis, written commentary, and multiple Elliott wave-labeled price charts.

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Futures Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy is your personal opportunity scout as he searches the world's leading commodity markets and serves up his best picks 5 days a week.

You get in-depth commodity analysis, daily video forecasts for up to 18 different commodities, plus Elliott wave trading lessons to help put your knowledge into action.

"A concise, daily, audio-visual information barrage. Absolutely the BEST value anywhere." - Tom P.

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Your Latest Commodity Forecast: May 2012 Set to Be a Record-Hot Month for Opportunity

Fri, 27 Apr 2012 13:45:00
by Nico Isaac

According to the National Weather Service, March 2012 was the most sweltering month since official tracking began in 1910. That was outside.

Inside the world's key commodity markets, according to EWI's chief commodity analyst and Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy, the Elliott wave heat is about to set new records in May.

What's more, Jeffrey's brand-new Monthly Futures Junctures shows you the exact markets where the "warm fronts" should be coming, AND when they will converge to form the perfect heat wave of opportunity.

First is Monthly Futures Junctures "Featured Market" video. This 13+ minute streaming slide show gives Jeffrey all the room he needs to stretch out his written analysis of 3 "best-opportunity" markets: coffee, sugar, and soybeans.

The 13-minute video also gives you bonus Elliott-wave labeled charts and trading lessons, as well as late-breaking developments learned after the publication went to press. Here's a sneak preview:

Coffee: What you don't see is what you get. Here, Jeffrey tries an old, daring tactic on for size: He erases all of the Elliott wave labels from the quarterly chart of coffee in order to get a "fresh perspective" on the larger trend at hand. The results pay off big time with this crucial insight:

Over the last 40 years, one main precondition has led to a 2-part scenario: A short-lived advance followed by a sizable and time-consuming sell off.

Jeffrey then tells you whether the odds of that set-up forming now are as unlikely as the mainstream experts expect.

Sugar: Jeffrey can't hide his sweet spot for this market and says, "Price charts in sugar are very exciting for a number of reasons." Off the top are these:

You can see an "ending diagonal" Elliott wave pattern on the monthly sugar chart. As Elliotticians know, ending diagonals often introduce "swift and sharp" moves.
The quarterly sugar chart shows a "very, very large multi, multi-year [Elliott wave triangle]" nearing its end.
The Elliott wave guideline pertaining to the price behavior following wave extensions provides a specific price target for London sugar “as we move into 2012, most likely 2013, and maybe even beyond."

Soybeans: In March, corn and wheat turned down while soybeans soared. Jeffrey hones in on soybeans' rally from the 2008 bottom and writes:

"It's a very clear and almost textbook example" of one kind of Elliott wave pattern:

If that pattern is contained by parallel lines, it indicates a bear market rally.
If that pattern unfolds in 5 waves, it signals a renewed bull trend.

Jeffrey then tells you which of the two Elliott wave patterns soybeans are in, and what the next bog move should be.

Believe it or not, that's just the beginning. What follows in print are 8 more pages of Jeffrey's "Wave Watch" section. There, you see 2 Elliott wave-labeled price charts for 10 commodities -- 20 Elliott wave charts total -- each with clearly marked trendlines, up/downside price targets, and bold arrows pointing prices in their next likely direction.

And don't forget the final, video-and-print "Traders Classroom" segment.

So, what are you waiting for? Get instant access to the entire story via an instant-access, risk-free Futures Junctures Service subscription.

Want to see what big moves are in store for commodites? See them now -- RISK-FREE for 30 days

PLUS, get the best short-term commodity opportunities from an Elliott wave expert -- 5 days a week

Futures Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy is your personal opportunity scout as he searches the world's leading commodity markets and serves up his best picks 5 days a week.

You get in-depth commodity analysis, daily video forecasts for up to 18 different commodities, plus Elliott wave trading lessons to help put your knowledge into action.

"A concise, daily, audio-visual information barrage. Absolutely the BEST value anywhere." - Tom P.

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Lean Hog Prices at 6-Week Low: 3rd Elliott Wave in Action

Wed, 25 Apr 2012 16:00:00
by Nico Isaac

Over the last three months, lean hog prices have gone from “commodity on fire” – TO – commodity in the fire-roasting pit of a 15-month low.

Now, imagine having the foresight of knowing from the get-go that hog prices were about to do a 180-degree turnaround? Well, today I’m sitting down with someone who did: EWI’s chief commodity analyst and Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy.

Nico Isaac: Back in February 2012, lean hog prices were within spitting distance of their all-time high (set in late November 2011). And, despite a "bullish backdrop" of growing demand from China and falling supplies, the February 2012 Monthly Futures Junctures’ “Featured” segment on lean hogs painted a very different -- i.e. bearish -- story.

Jeffrey Kennedy: Yes. In the February 2012 Monthly Futures Junctures, I built a strong case for a downturn in hog prices based on the fact that a terminating Elliott wave pattern -- an ending diagonal -- had run its course.

There, I presented the following chart of lean hogs that magnified the ending diagonal in action.

Nico Isaac: For Elliott newbies, what is an ending diagonal?

Jeffrey: An ending diagonal is a terminating pattern that signals exhaustion of the larger trend. It exhibits these specific traits:

It unfolds in five waves, wherein each wave subdivides into three smaller waves
Wave 4 ends in the price territory of wave 1
The trendlines that connect the extremes of waves 1 & 3, and waves 2 & 4 converge
Once complete, the pattern introduces a swift reversal in the opposite direction

Nico: How did you know that the ending diagonal had reached its end?

Jeffrey: There were two pieces of evidence that supported my bearish assessment:

The declines since the October 2011 peak had unfolded impulsively. This means they developed in five waves to signal that the trend had turned from up to down.
The advances had unfolded correctively. This means they developed in three waves, were often complex and choppy, and signaled a move that went against the larger trend.

Nico: The next part of your chart and analysis showed a series of one’s and two’s coming off the diagonal's late February high. This set the stage for third-of-third wave selling. Third waves, of course, are the most powerful waves in all of Elliott wave sequence. What was the final nail in lean hogs’ bullish coffin?

Jeffrey: When price action confirmed the bearish labeling. In the days and weeks following the publication of the February Monthly Futures Junctures, lean hog prices beautifully displayed the power and clarity of third-wave selling. Here, the following chart from my April 24 Daily Futures Junctures captures lean hogs’ downturn in action:

Nico: Thank you Jeffrey. What can you tell our readers about what you’re looking for in lean hogs now to signal whether the third-wave decline has reached an end?

Jeffrey: Two words: Price action.

Want to see what big moves are in store for commodites? See them now -- RISK-FREE for 30 days

PLUS, get the best short-term commodity opportunities from an Elliott wave expert -- 5 days a week

Futures Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy is your personal opportunity scout as he searches the world's leading commodity markets and serves up his best picks 5 days a week.

You get in-depth commodity analysis, daily video forecasts for up to 18 different commodities, plus Elliott wave trading lessons to help put your knowledge into action.

"A concise, daily, audio-visual information barrage. Absolutely the BEST value anywhere." - Tom P.

Start your 30-day RISK-FREE subscription today and find out where commodities are heading next >>

Maybe You Didn't Hear About Proposed Regulations for the Oil Market

Fri, 20 Apr 2012 16:45:00
by Robert Folsom

Nothing exposes the ignorance of politicians, economists and the media more than the intersection of financial markets and government regulation.

At best, this ignorance is exposed when they forget history and extrapolate today's trend into tomorrow. At worst ... well, they ask all the wrong questions and resort to political opportunism.

What are the "right" questions? Fair enough: Let's ask about a market that's "hot" right now, both in terms of prices and as a target of would-be regulators.

Rising oil prices will "hurt the economy" and damage President Obama's re-election chances -- or so the logic goes. But exactly how does that logic apply to the 78% collapse in oil prices during the 2008 financial crisis, and to the 3-year uptrend in oil during the economic recovery?

Oil prices have indeed climbed steadily since early 2009, from $40 to $100+ per barrel. So why are experts NOW predicting $200 per barrel oil, when NONE of them forecast the major rally 3 years ago?

Why did the Obama administration this week call for new regulations to "fight oil manipulation"? And what should the president really fear -- rising gas prices, or a falling price trend?

Ask yourself if you've even heard these questions before ... never mind getting them answered. Pardon the cliché, but there's simply no better way to put it: Making the right decisions about your future really does begin by asking the right questions first.

Maybe you didn't hear about the proposed new regulations for the oil market, or about the "expert" forecasts for much higher oil prices (yes, as high as $200 per barrel). That's all the more reason to get the full story from the just-published April 2012 issue of Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.

As only he can, Bob Prechter gets the story right by including ALL the relevant details, within a narrative that makes sense. You get answers to every one of the questions above -- plus, the April 2012 Elliott Wave Theorist goes on to ask & answer plenty more that you simply will not come across elsewhere.

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Dot Com-modities. Has the Raw Materials Bubble Burst?

Wed, 18 Apr 2012 15:45:00
by Nico Isaac

Since soaring to multi-decade highs in mid-2011, the commodity sector as a whole has had the wind knocked out of its bullish sails. To wit: from its April 2011 peak, the bellwether Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) has plunged 20% to its lowest level in four months.

The question is: will commodity prices keep falling?

Well, according to the mainstream experts -- YES -- and, just as equally, NO.

Depending on which popular media report you choose to believe, that is. On this, the contradictory pair of April 18 news stories below will have you feeling more displaced than a squirrel in a desert.

The future of commodities is bleak: “At the biannual World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund predicted that commodity prices are likely to keep falling from last year’s high as demand and price have lost steam,” all the while NOT discounting the possibility of a redo of the 2007-8 financial crisis. (ABC Online)

The future of commodities looks bright: “Commodity Prices Improve on Economic Optimism.” (BusinessWeek)

If you seek an answer for where commodity prices are headed, ask somebody who has stayed one step ahead of the sector’s many biggest turns: EWI’s chief commodity analyst and Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy.

In the March 2011 Monthly Futures Junctures, Jeffrey Kennedy presented the following chart of the CCI that showed an unfinished rising Elliott wave pattern and wrote: "The CCI shows the need for additional advance for the pattern to complete itself."

Then, once price action confirmed Jeffrey's bearish wave count, he revisited the CCI in the September 2011 Monthly Futures Junctures. There, Jeffrey presented a special, expanded "Featured Market" segment on the Continuous Commodity Index that argued in favor of a major turn down via these timely insights:

"The Continuous Commodity Index tells a bearish story when we apply the most basic Elliott wave analysis. This month, we will review the CCI's price charts to see why..."

And: "The advance in the CCI from the 2008 low to the high this year is in five waves, meaning that it is an impulse wave. So, with a completed five-wave advance, what can we look for next? ... We can make a high probability forecast that in the months ahead, the CC will fall..."

Flash ahead to today. In the April 17 Daily Futures Junctures, Jeffrey presents the following chart of the CCI that shows the depth of the market’s decline. Above all, Jeffrey’s analysis of the CCI reveals that the most powerful Elliott wave pattern of all known 13 Elliott wave configurations could be just around the market’s corner.

So, the question now is: Has the "commodity bubble" burst? OR, will the market re-flate once again?

Right now, EWI's complete Futures Junctures Service has the answer you've been waiting for -- yours risk-free for 30 days.

Want to see what big moves are in store for commodites? See them now -- RISK-FREE for 30 days

PLUS, get the best short-term commodity opportunities from an Elliott wave expert -- 5 days a week

Futures Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy is your personal opportunity scout as he searches the world's leading commodity markets and serves up his best picks 5 days a week.

You get in-depth commodity analysis, daily video forecasts for up to 18 different commodities, plus Elliott wave trading lessons to help put your knowledge into action.

"A concise, daily, audio-visual information barrage. Absolutely the BEST value anywhere." - Tom P.

Start your 30-day RISK-FREE subscription today and find out where commodities are heading next >>

Why You Can Count On A Fresh Opportunity In Soybeans

Thu, 12 Apr 2012 16:45:00
by Nico Isaac

According to mainstream analysis of financial markets, root causes called "fundamentals" give rise (or fall) to turns in the market's price trend.

But in reality, all too often changes in price happen first. Then, the mainstream experts swoop in and try to quickly adjust "fundamentals" to fit price action -- after the fact. This often creates a flurry of mixed information where the theme of one news story is quickly contradicted by the next.

Take, for instance the pair of April 11 headlines regarding soybean futures:

US Department of Agriculture report is bullish: "Soybean Prices Rise As Supply Tightens. Soybean prices rose to a seven month high after the USDA said the world domestic supplies of soybeans will be tighter this year due to short crops in Brazil and..." (Associated Press)

-- Versus --

US Department of Agriculture report is bearish: "Supply Outlook Rattles Soybeans. Soybean prices declined after the US Government reported bigger national inventories than forecast by analysts." (Bloomberg)

So long as you look outside financial markets for clues as to future price action, you will be at the mercy of subjective gainsaying just like this.

Elliott wave analysis stands apart by examining the main trend-changing force internal to all finanical markets; namely, social mood -- which also unfolds in objective wave patterns on a market's price chart. Each pattern adheres to specific rules and guidelines governing wave length, depth, and often duration.

So, unlike fundamental analysis which waits on price action first, then follows -- Elliott analysis tries to anticipate major moves before they unfold.

And, right now, EWI's chief commodity analyst and Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy puts his Elliott wave expertise to work on identifying the near-term trend underway in soybeans. The big question being: is the market's show-stopping 30%-plus rally since the start of the year wearing thin -- or just beginning?

Well, in the April 11 Daily Futures Junctures, Jeffrey reveals that the answer to this question is a simple matter of counting the waves from soybeans' early April high. To wit:

3 waves signal countertrend price action. It is choppy, complex, and often retraced in far less time than it took to develop.
5 waves signal impulsive price action and an extension of the larger trend. With the wind at its back, 5-wave moves tend to unfold in a smooth and decisive manner.

So, what are you waiting for? Get instant access to the complete Daily Futures Junctures web video-and-written analysis of soybeans. Click here and follow the steps to a risk-free subscription today.

Want to see what big moves are in store for commodites? See them now -- RISK-FREE for 30 days

PLUS, get the best short-term commodity opportunities from an Elliott wave expert -- 5 days a week

Futures Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy is your personal opportunity scout as he searches the world's leading commodity markets and serves up his best picks 5 days a week.

You get in-depth commodity analysis, daily video forecasts for up to 18 different commodities, plus Elliott wave trading lessons to help put your knowledge into action.

"A concise, daily, audio-visual information barrage. Absolutely the BEST value anywhere." - Tom P.

Start your 30-day RISK-FREE subscription today and find out where commodities are heading next >>

Diagonal Pattern: Straight Shot To Opportunity

Wed, 04 Apr 2012 10:30:00
by Nico Isaac

Today, April 4, I sit down with Elliott Wave International's chief commodity analyst and Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy to discuss his favorite wave pattern of all: the diagonal.

Nico Isaac: You say if you had to pick just ONE of all 13 known Elliott wave structures to spend the rest of your technical trading life with, it would be diagonal. First, tell us what the diagonal is.

Jeffrey Kennedy: The diagonal is a five-wave pattern labeled 1 through 5, in which each leg subdivides into three smaller waves: 3-3-3-3-3. Unlike motive waves, however, diagonals are the only five-wave structures in the direction of the main trend in which wave 4 almost always moves into the price territory of wave 1. See head shots below:

NI: So, what makes this pattern so darn special?

JK: As you can see in the above charts, the diagonal is a terminating pattern. They can only occur in waves 5 of impulses or C-waves of corrections. This is why they're so exciting. Diagonals precede a dramatic change in trend. And, when they end, prices tend to retrace the entire pattern, or more, and fast -- in 1/3 to ½ the time it took the pattern to form.

Put simply: If you see a diagonal, you know the train of change is coming into the station.

NI: Well, in the March 30 Daily Futures Junctures (on-line now with a risk-free subscription) you do, in fact, see a diagonal underway in the recent price action of a major grain market. There, you present the following Elliott wave chart: (Some Elliott labels have been removed, while I took the liberty to draw a blue circle around the diagonal pattern for clarity)

JK: Yes. This is a classic diagonal unfolding in the final wave of the larger trend. As you can see, prices have put the finishing touches on wave (v) of c (circled). And, if my wave count is correct, this market's prices are about to board the "Exciting Southbound Turn" Railway.

NI: Thank you so much for taking the time to explain the ins and outs of your favorite structure, the diagonal. And also, for alerting readers to the possible DRAMA in store for this major grain market thanks to this Elliott wave pattern.

You can see the most current 5 full Daily Futures Junctures publications -- which includes Elliott wave-labeled price charts, detailed written analysis, and live video commentary on the near-term trend changes in store for the market featured today -- and many others -- via a risk-free Futures Junctures Service subscription. Details below.

Want to see what big moves are in store for commodites? See them now -- RISK-FREE for 30 days

PLUS, get the best short-term commodity opportunities from an Elliott wave expert -- 5 days a week

Futures Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy is your personal opportunity scout as he searches the world's leading commodity markets and serves up his best picks 5 days a week.

You get in-depth commodity analysis, daily video forecasts for up to 18 different commodities, plus Elliott wave trading lessons to help put your knowledge into action.

"A concise, daily, audio-visual information barrage. Absolutely the BEST value anywhere." - Tom P.

Start your 30-day RISK-FREE subscription today and find out where commodities are heading next >>

Is That A Megaphone In Your Sugar Chart?

Thu, 29 Mar 2012 16:45:00
by Nico Isaac

Right now, there are two big "fundamental" stories competing for the spotlight in sugar; the operative word here being "competing." They are:

The bullish event of adverse weather in the world's number one sugar-producing nation of Brazil. Here, a March 22 Reuters' reports: "Sugar soars to a three-week high on speculation that output will trail forecasts in Brazil."

And the bearish event of India Okaying an increase in sugar exports. A March 26 CNBC steps in and writes: "Sugar caps largest decline in seven weeks on a widely expected decision by India to approve a further one million tonnes of exports of the sweetener."

With such differing reports, how does one decide which way sugar prices will go? Well, according to a March 28 Reuters, you don't. As it is, the lack of fundamental solidarity has "left many market players groping for direction."

The problem with mainstream finanical analysis is that it relies on the "physics" of a market, the outside factors like news and events. These are often subjective, conflicting, and unreliable as a precursor to market behavior.

Elliott wave analysis studies the "psychology" of a market, the internal measure of social mood. This unfolds in objective wave patterns on a market's price chart, portending of major moves to come.

And, in the March 27 Daily Futures Junctures, EWI's chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy combines his Elliott wave know-how with other technical indicators to create a no-stone-unturned study into sugar. Here, Jeffrey presents 10 charts that sufficiently size up sugar's near-term trend.

In one of those charts -- reprinted below -- Jeffrey identifies a popular variation of the Elliott wedge pattern as discovered by fellow technical chartist Thomas Bulkowski, the "ascending broadening wedge."

This pattern, which clearly resembles a megaphone, is distinguished by at least three peaks and three valleys touching their respective trendlines. As it were, the appearance of the "Megaphone" in sugar's chart bolsters Jeffrey's confidence in the market's next big move.

So, what are you waiting for? Get the complete story today via a risk-free Futures Junctures Service subscription, which includes instant access to Jeffrey's short-term Daily Futures Junctures, his long-term sister publication Monthly Futures Junctures, and many more bonus features.

Want to see what big moves are in store for commodites? See them now -- RISK-FREE for 30 days

PLUS, get the best short-term commodity opportunities from an Elliott wave expert -- 5 days a week

Futures Junctures editor Jeffrey Kennedy is your personal opportunity scout as he searches the world's leading commodity markets and serves up his best picks 5 days a week.

You get in-depth commodity analysis, daily video forecasts for up to 18 different commodities, plus Elliott wave trading lessons to help put your knowledge into action.

"A concise, daily, audio-visual information barrage. Absolutely the BEST value anywhere." - Tom P.

Start your 30-day RISK-FREE subscription today and find out where commodities are heading next >>

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