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April 24th- Video Analysis of SP 500 Correction
Tue, 24 Apr 2012 13:00:35 +0000by admin
At TheMarketTrendForecast.com I use a combination of Elliott Wave Theory and additional technical indicators to ferret out pivot highs and lows in the SP 500, Gold, and Silver for our subscribers. We give updates multiple times per week and try to help guide our members ahead of time so they are prepared to take advantage of market swings. We believe this is a Major 4th wave correction from the 1422 highs and will end up resolving to new highs once this is over. Below is our recent analysis:
Reviewing the SP 500 Action since the 1422 highs and where we are at… click the square box with the circle in it on the lower right of the video graphic box for high definition: Direct Link: CLICK HERE
April 7th- The GOLD Bull is far from dead yet
Sat, 07 Apr 2012 15:41:59 +0000by admin
April 7th- Weekend Bull views on GOLD
GOLD- has been consolidating since late August 2011 highs of 1923 spot price.
Prior to this, we saw a 34 month fibonacci time period rally from 680-1900's over a 5 wave pattern. As we approached those highs I warned my members and the public of a parabolic blow off top for wave 5 of primary wave 3.
Now, we are not quite but almost at 8 fibonacci months of corrective period and GOLD has taken a back seat to stocks and other investment options. The press is decidedly neutral to bearish on GOLD at this time.
This would be typical of a Primary wave 4 correction where sentiment gets negative but not in a hostile way.
If we look at the pattern of GOLD since the 2011 highs we can potentially see a 5 wave triangle forming. This current dip to the low 1600's would be wave 3 of that triangle, and a wave 4 bounce up would follow next… followed by a wave 5 dip for the final pullback.
If this pattern is indeed correct, then this current pullback we are in is your best opportunity to accumulate GOLD before a Primary wave 5 up confirms.
I realize I have mentioned 1523 as the LOW of wave 4, and that is because it is the low. However, wave 4 continues to consolidate marking time. Usually the lowest point in a 5 wave triangle is of course the first leg down from the highs of Wave 3. 1523 served that purpose and so far the wave 3 lows of this 5 wave pattern are around 1620 spot.
Bottom Line? We have been in a wave 4 primary correction since August 2011 in GOLD and the price low was already hit at 1523. What GOLD bulls want to see next is a power move up toward 1700 or a bit higher near term, followed by a wave 5 pullback… and then a big breakout to the upside.
I remain long term bullish on GOLD unless this pattern disintegrates, which I do not expect. This is why we are looking for GOLD stocks to bottom soon in the GDX ETF 43-47 ranges.
Feb 15th- Did the SP 500 just peak at 1356?
Wed, 15 Feb 2012 22:51:39 +0000by admin
This is somewhat of a things that make you go hmmmmmm exercise, but lets examine this 1356 number for a second here. The SP 500 hit 1356 today and put on the brakes and reversed down to 1341 in a possible terminal top move.
1356 actually has fibonacci relationships. If we take the last major rally which was from the Summer 2010 lows:
1010-1370 (May 2011 highs)
360 points
.786 of 360 is 283 points
Take 283, add it to the 1074 October lows…. you got 1356/57
That would mean this last rally so far is .786 of the 2010-11 rally.
Also, 1356/57 is right in my 1352-1376 pivot ranges for a Major 3 top as well
Evidence is mounting for a good sized correction here is my point.
Possible count, though many will argue not valid:
Wave 1- 666 to 1221- 555 points
Wave 2- 1221-1010- 211 points, .38% of 1
Wave 3- 1010-1370 360 points, .61% of 1
Wave 4- 1370-1074- 296 points… 38% of 1-3 (A bit more than 38%)
Wave 5- 1074-1356 .786 of 3
Only rule violation here is Wave 4 would have delved into wave 1, which is a no-no for most E wavers. However, I would argue that 4 often does delve into the wave 1 arena and legitimately, but that is a topic for another article.
Nonetheless… pay attention to the fibonacci relationships… if anything they may be warning of 1356 as an interim high and top with correction starting. This would either be a 4th wave down with the 5th and final wave up left… or we topped at 1356. A drop below 1337 will confirm a correction at minimum to 1310 and then 1295 ranges.
Just food for thought…we have been lightening our positions and raising stops at my ATP trading service. If you’d like to have regular updates on the SP 500, Gold and Silver so you can benefit from major pivots ahead of the crowd, check us out at www.markettrendforecast.com for a coupon offer.
Jan 29th- The Long Term Bull Market E Wave Count
Sun, 29 Jan 2012 13:59:32 +0000by admin
I have to be honest that I am grappling with a few possible counts since the March 2009 Bull market commenced in terms of the big picture.
With Elliott Wave Analysis, you have to anticipate, monitor, and then adjust. Most of the time I go with my instinct and then only adjust if it looks like I was way off the tracks. The only time I tend to get way off the tracks is when I read too many opinions, so I've shut myself off from reading other's opinions and below is my gut right now:
I know I have labeled one option as the 1074 lows being primary wave 2, with primary wave 3 underway since (1074 to current). However, I have to admit my instincts still tell me that the 1074 lows may have been primary wave 4, and we are in primary wave 5 up now.
Whether it was 2 or 4 is not super important short term because we would either be in a Primary 3 up or Primary 5 up now which is bullish either way. However… if it's a primary 5 up, then it changes the longer term pictures and also 5th waves can be difficult to assess.
There is another rule that says wave 3 can't be the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5 (All up waves). Therefore, if we are in primary 5 up now from the 1074 lows then we can't rally more than 360 points from the 1074 lows (Wave 3 was 360 points).
So here is the possible count if this is Primary 5 from the March 2009 lows with normal fibonacci relationships:
666 to 1221- 1
1221-1010- 2 (38% of 1)
1010-1370- 3 (61.8% of 1)
1370-1074- 4 (38% of 1-3)
1074-'? - 5 (Normally 50-61% of 1-3)
So if wave 5 cant be longer than wave 3, and let's say wave 5 is 50% of waves 1-3… that would put a top target at about 1426 on the
SP 500 index. That would make wave 5 just shorter than wave 3 following the rules and would complete 5 full waves.
So that is what I'm grappling with because if this is a primary wave 5 up from the Oct 2011 lows of Primary 4… then we would need to be on our toes for a bull market pivot top. If its primary wave 3 up , then we have much further to stretch.
Right now, the evidence is leaning to this being primary 5 up… below is my chart and I will keep you updated. The volume, MACD, and other indicators will help point the way.
Note how the volume has been declining on every primary wave rally 1, 3, and 5 so far. Note how the MACD line uptrends on each primary wave rally as it is now…
Stay tuned
Gold and the QE3 ship - Are both about to sail?
Mon, 01 Aug 2011 18:29:31 +0000by admin
David Banister- www.MarketTrendForecast.com
Back in Mid-May of this year we had a big rally in the Dollar and Gold was correcting hard. There was a bit of Dollar Bull hysteria at the time which I felt was quite unfounded. I wrote an article entitled, “The Dollar Bull Monkey Dance Will Soon End Badly, QE3 Next?” You see, the collective herd psychology at that time, just a short ten weeks ago, was that Gold would drop hard at the end of QE2, and The Dollar would of course rally as high as 82, maybe more against the weighted index.
The dollar has dropped hard since mid-May as I expected and Gold has continued to rally as well. I had forecasted $1627 for Gold back when we were under $1,500 and last Friday we closed at $1627 on the nose! During the mid-May time, most disagreed with my QE3 forecast, and probably still do but I think the ships is soon leaving port. This could blast Gold up to a target of $1805 on the high end and certainly into the low 1700's to the $1730 per ounce range.
Gold has had a powerful 5 wave rally (Elliott Wave Theory) since the October 2008 lows of $681 per ounce, and certainly one could argue that a correction would make sense fairly soon. However, the fundamentals for Gold are only getting stronger as we have inflation climbing at an 8-9% real rate and interest rates continuing to drop. This is creating a “negative” real interest rate environment amidst a continuing weaker US dollar. Hence it is hard fundamentally to argue against Gold at this time, creating difficulty in forecasting the intermediate highs and lows.
With that said, assuming QE3 or some form takes place soon then my $1805 target is quite likely to be hit before we can look for any meaningful correction in the precious metal complex. With the ISM manufacturing index turning down sharply as reported this morning and other economic indicators and GDP report rolling over, a QE3 ship horn is likely to sound soon. Below is my latest chart dated July 22nd with Gold at $1599 at the time, outlining the likely interim moves in Gold using my crowd behavioral methodology that I employ at my forecasting service.
The combination of crowd behavior and fundamental analysis often delivers stunningly accurate forecasts in advance on the SP 500, Gold and Silver at TMTF. Consider signing up for our regular updates and use our 72 hour coupon code at www.MarketTrendForecast.com
Market looks poised to reverse hard to downside within days
Wed, 28 Dec 2011 19:24:15 +0000by admin
David A Banister- www.MarketTrendForecast.com
The market has been in the process of a near 13 Fibonacci week corrective rally since the October 4th 2011 lows at 1074 on the SP 500. So far the highs reached on the initial rally of 218 points were in October at 1292. That has remained the high water mark as we have consolidated over the last many weeks. I expect the market to complete this counter-trend ABC bounce during the Dec 27th-29th window, followed by a good sized correction into Mid-January ahead of the earning season.
The patterns that I am seeing are based on crowd behavioral “Elliott Wave” analysis that I perform at my TMTF and ATP services, and this analysis now favors a 70% probability of a bearish decline beginning very shortly to the 1150's area on the SP 500 index. To wit, Investment Advisors in recent surveys have over 45% Bulls and only 30% bears with typical tops forming around 47-48% Bulls in surveys. In addition, the rally has been on light volume and recent action seems to be forming a rising “bearish wedge” pattern at the same time.
Reversals in the market often come when few expect it whether they come near bottoms or tops. My most recent forecasts called a bullish turn after Thanksgiving Day when most were bearish in the 1160's on the SP 500 index. We then rallied 109 points to a 1267 high, which we are re-testing now. As we recently pulled back into the low 1200's, I again said to watch for a major market turn on Dec 20th. We then immediately rallied so far into the 1270 area from the 1203 lows.
Below is a chart I sent to my subscribers on Dec 24th, having projected a continuing rally into the 27th-29th window of trade. If you'd like to benefit from our market turn calls and crowd behavioral based pattern analysis on the SP 500 and Gold and Silver, check us out at www.MarketTrendForecast.com to sign up for our FREE FORECAST or GET 33% HOLIDAY DISCOUNT ON OUR PREMIUM GOLD AND SILVER FORECASTS.
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